Industry Information

Black Market Weekly Report 20231023

View：1362023-10-23 00:00:00

 Core logic
Technology: The thread weekly level shock is weak, the upper large cycle pressure is around 3660, the strong pressure is 3740, the current material cycle trend is downward; the iron ore 01 contract weekly level shock is weakening, pay attention to whether the moving average of 848 can be recovered again, strong Support 815-765;
Iron ore: Neutral is strong, the inventory angle is strong, limited by the sharp compression of steel mill profits, increasing maintenance, and weakening demand margins;
Thread: Neutral, low supply, weak demand, the peak season is coming to an end, and there is no strong driver yet;
Hot roll: neutral is weak, demand is released after production reduction, supply and demand are weak and stable, currently paying attention to the production reduction situation, and then looking for a balance point in plate supply;
Dual coke: Neutral is weak, coking coal prices are marginally weaker, with Shanxi going to 4.3 coke ovens this week, the spot price is expected to be stable;
Profit: Neutral. Last week’s profit improved month-on-month, but overall it still faced losses across all categories;

Macro: Weak, A-shares affect the market situation, after the release of quarterly data last Wednesday, market expectations for future stimulus policies declined;

Taken together: Finished materials: Building materials are gradually transitioning from the peak season to the off-season. However, the decline in the proportion of building materials this year has caused the demand for finished materials to be less seasonal. Prices have released downward demand, resulting in weak and stable prices. Post-holiday production reductions are not enough, which restricts price elasticity. At present, Supply and demand remain weak and stable, and prices are expected to fluctuate and trend weakly;;
Iron Ore: The fundamentals of iron ore are still relatively strong among black varieties. However, considering that steel mills are still losing money on a large scale, inventory turning points have appeared, and bulls concentrated on cashing in profits last week, it is expected that this week will fluctuate, and futures will still be stronger than spot prices. The basis difference trend is closing, and the pattern is within a narrow range;;
Coking coal: Affected by the deterioration of industry sentiment, coupled with the decline of futures, coking coal futures are unblocked and shipped, invisible stocks are put on the market, individual coal types are marginally weaker, and coking plant coal blending prices generally fall by 20-30%; but the absolute inventory level is still On the low side, prices are expected to fluctuate;
Coke: The spot price is stable after the second round is launched. Shanxi's 4.3m overcapacity reduction has led to a mismatch between supply and demand in the stage, supporting the stability of the spot price. Pay attention to the loss range and production reduction of steel mills. This week, steel mills have plans to increase the price, but considering the supply and demand of coke itself, Expect longer gaming sessions;
Scrap steel: The arrival of scrap steel has declined, and daily consumption has stabilized at a low level and rebounded slightly. Recently, steel mills have reduced production and reduced scrap steel at the margin, resulting in a decline in scrap steel prices. The decline is expected to be limited;
Structural: Weak, steel mills’ profits are compressed, and the price-performance ratio is swapped back and forth. It should be noted that the actual demand for lump ore has weakened significantly month-on-month;